US Election – BREXIT plus plus
Commentary from Ian Poysden, MD, IEP Financial on Presidential Election Result
The US Election – This is not the first politically-inspired rapid response note that I have written this year and it might well not be the last, given the Italian Referendum still to come in December. That potential “game-changer” will have to wait as today the big news is obviously over the successful campaign of Donald Trump that takes him to the White House and the Republican “clean sweep” of the House of Representatives and Congress. This was not the outcome that most commentators and financial markets were expecting, but there was certainly a view that Trump’s campaign and broad appeal was being underestimated.
We will follow up with more detailed commentary in the next few days. Of course, there will be political and market responses that need greater evaluation.
Looking forward further than this week, it appears to us that this is not the major negative for markets. The global economy that many will try and say that it is. It is abundantly clear that change is necessary and that is what the electorates of the UK and US have voted for. We now watch the aforementioned Italian Referendum and elections in France and Germany next year with keener interest. Of course, we will have to see the finer details of Trump’s plans and work out how acceptable they will be to the wider Republican Party, but this could well end up being a better medium term outcome than the “more of the same” option that Clinton had put forward.
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